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Cape Town Asphalt Demand Pressure Monitor

A procurement-pipeline model that classifies road tenders and awards to estimate future asphalt demand pressure in Cape Town and the Western Cape without claiming supplier inventory.

PIPELINE READY
Decision
Anticipate procurement pressure early enough to review programme sequencing, supply strategy and escalation risk.
Source
National Treasury eTender OCDS API + City of Cape Town tender portal + Stats SA construction materials data
Period
May 2021 onward for eTender OCDS
Created by
Nyashadzashe Munyati
CASE STUDY

The analytical result is shown before the technical method.

What I did in this project

01

Defined the question.

02

Prepared the data.

03

Built the analysis.

04

Validated and documented the result.

Anticipate procurement pressure early enough to review programme sequencing, supply strategy and escalation risk.

Clients, contractors and suppliers benefit from knowing whether many asphalt-intensive road projects are likely to enter construction at the same time. Public procurement data can provide an early demand signal even when plant inventory and production capacity are private.

02 · DATA

Source data

National Treasury eTender OCDS API + City of Cape Town tender portal + Stats SA construction materials data

03 · TRANSFORMATION

What I changed before calculating anything

04 · CALCULATION

Worked calculations — not black-box KPIs

05 · MORE ANALYSIS

What the drill-down adds

The headline chart gives the decision signal. These additional views show whether the same conclusion survives when the data is sliced another way.

Numerical visuals are added after the source data pass validation.

The question and method are documented, but unfinished results are not presented as completed analysis.

06 · INTERPRETATION

What I would say in the management meeting

07 · RECOMMENDATION

What I would do next

TRIGGER / EVIDENCEACTIONWHY
Analysis completeUse the pressure index as an early market signal and combine it with supplier engagement, programme information and current material indices before making procurement decisions.Turn the finding into a decision.

Public procurement coverage is incomplete. Tender descriptions do not provide asphalt tonnage consistently.